Daniel Mankani "DynamicTrader – Trend Trading Dynamics" Trading for a living, systematically profiting from longer term trends.

17Jan/180

We Are Entering Interesting Times, “Key Reversal Major” ESH2783.85

This gonna be very very interesting, "Key Reversal Major" , HIGH PROBABILITY!.
"Trading For a Living" - Daniel Mankani.

Markets participants tend to overdo,
everything that they intend to do,
if it works, rinse, repeat.

If it doesn't work, lessen the bad ones, keep the good one.
Look at overall system performance not of individual trades. Diversification.

All that is fine. But money is such that it always needs a home to survive.
And what happen's when that home doesn't exist.

Every "Fiat" whose price is reflective of the underlying,
a chase for the underlying begins. This is called a "Melt-Up"

Which is now been suggested by the markets, could be over.
Then comes the turn and we break good lower lows.

Example is; BITCOIN. Analysis of its recent trading anatomy,
how melt up, highest high and it will turn around and take out the lowest lows.

In the Stock Market now, the same underlying pattern is now taking place.

Key Reversal Major..
HIGH PROBABILITY.

Co-relation Analysis.

The federal reserve and its associated crony banks have locked themselves in, now the baby is been given to the public.

The stupid and foolhardy investor that always emerges on greed, has now stepped in.

As markets plunge, that fiat has to go somewhere, what does that do to yields?

This coming weekend cot report could show gold squeeze.

Etf squeezes first for delivery and then to liquidate them.

psst here is the secret. “The market is ahead of the curve, what drives it. Sentiment, not economy. Economy on the other hand is reflective of the stock market which is in turn, ahead of the curve.

Its price vs change my friends, a game a cycles of price and time.

Get it?

And as the peak is left behind, feds will still have to hike, to spill more blood. So the foolhardy investor can get his fill.

He is a tough negotiator! He is Trump. He is a republican who are known to start big wars in the first term. He will want to try negotiating debt, bankruptcy king is what he is!

What you see is drip drip drip, once its wet enough, then it slips.

"If the analogy is true, then you can assume the result is other debts holders forgive US debts.  Which means long USD before it starts flying. Buy Moar!"

Response:

You are assuming that dollar becomes scarce as they liquidate treasures holdings and yields rise on them. Yes, in such an instance dollar will become scarce and fly, but in that scarcity lies in there its own collapse. Then do you think its will rise in price?

The response for that lies in, understanding whether the countries monetary supply is expanding or shrinking. Is there a trend towards self isolation vs opening up trade, monetary supply expands with more positive spread across borders.

That's your answer. Lies in the underlying.

By 2018 end, dollar will be down another 10% and its global dominance shrinks,
the challenges will be in china. Its becoming japan. USA will see its 1998.

17/Jan/2018 - Dynamictrader.com

 

19Mar/12Off

The Loonie has broken to the downside and Yen is capped around 83.45.

The Loonie has broken to the downside and The dollar  is capped against the Yen at around 83.45, And whereas it looks like the bounce levels for CHF at 0.91 figure and EUR at 1.3245 appears near conclusion. Am not sure, if these breaks and  if it does, there is more upside for the currencies and more downside for the dollar, against the CHF and the EURO. {Targets CHF 89.60 / EURO 1.3455 levels}

This break above 1.3245/0.9100 {below} is required to provide confirmation that the US stock market rally is extending, and targets Dow 14000/1450 SP. In such a scenario, the currencies also extend and the recent weakness in the JPY can see it take out 83.50.

About 83.50 on the  JPY puts 85.50 into target, a key resistant level, whose break is required to provide evidence that the move for the USD towards 92-94 YEN is indeed underway. The JPY is the only trend at the moment that looks extremely healthy and with the most potential,  The bottom right, as expected, now for the larger big move, we have been waiting for will present itself in the coming weeks.

Only, If the bounce concludes, for the EURO and CHF and there is a reversal, JPY trend trade could be in danger as we shall see a lower stock market and cash moving back into safe havens, which the YEN has lately demonstrated a few times, as it inverse relationships to US stocks takes hold.

In the longer term, been parked in the dollar will look better than stocks, which are now over extended and there has been some substantial damage done for the bears, none are to be seen, the VIX has been crying out aloud.

Stocks may be poised to go crazy to the upside and it could be relatively fast and furious, with 14000 within weeks, and the SP 1450 in sight. Good levels to position to jump in on the turn around.

Never forget the short squeeze of the late nineties, The Nasdag went from 1000 to 5000 in a relative short period of time. Yes!, the Nasdaq gained close to 500% in a relative short period of time. 15 months {Oct 1998 to March 2000 bust). We could see a repeat here.

The stock bulls are pushing it once more again, very soon some juicy steaks will be on the table.

26Jan/12Off

Market Stalling Are we done yet The rally…

Market Stalling. Are we done yet? The rally since last december seems like a never ending story, everyday up without fail or very small down, we are near the 52 weeks high on the DOW today, another 20pts and it would have been a New High. In this run up, the SP and Nasdaq are weaker in comparison, Whats going on here folks? Is someone holding the market up. That's the feeling that i get.....

Then if we look again, the dow only comprises of 30 Stocks, anyone buying these stocks up and providing the world with Hope, is certainly doing a very nice job.

The Baltic Index is near 2008 Lows.

In any case, I think today we have a chance of a turnaround, the Euro and the Dollar are both near their corrective levels. We were indeed oversold on the euro at 1.25 Zone, there had to be a short squeeze coming, when FX IMM currency bets were at the highest against the euro. The squeeze is here guys and think its near about done. Lets see if 1.3225 holds or not. I feel todays 1.3180 was about it, and we turn from around these levels.

Dow has given back most of its gains and its trading near its lows. It may break down into the close. if it does, maybe this could be the first leg down for the top.

Alternatively we may only top somewhere around March 2012. Lets see how this trade plays out. Taking a long stand on the USDCHF.

Break lower on the Dow, will take a short on the march dow or get some puts.

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3Jan/12Off

As we head towards the opening month most…

As we head towards the opening month, most likely which will set the tone for the rest of the year, I would look at two scenarios before the significant bearish move to the downside.

Scenario no 1. This opening week will create a top in most of these markets and a resumption to the downside. The dow is up 2% today, and oil, gold, a few percentages as well. The euro seems confident. In Scenario no 1, we expect the markets to have or already have made a top today and allow the market to grind this entire week, before a break down on Friday. Which means the highs are already behind us today, or there is another one more attempt left to the upside, in either case, we expect a reversal back to pre holiday levels by Monday.

Which means continuation of the dollar to the upside and a RISK OFF attitude back in the markets.

In Scenario No 2. This market continues to the meltup and top off sometime in March and then we break new lows and even lower lows than last October 3, which if anyone has noticed was almost 22% away. The market has rallied much more.

My own bet is on the RISK OFF trade.