Daniel Mankani "DynamicTrader – Trend Trading Dynamics" Trading for a living, systematically profiting from longer term trends.

4Jul/12Off

INDIA NIFTY – Has 5400/5420 in view. This guy is not falling!

The last few sessions in the markets have been breath taking, Just a few days ago on FRIDAY, HOPIUM rose and the markets became once again happy go lucky!. Despite the geo political arena getting hotter, American Ships in the straits of Hormuz, plus IRAN completing their war cry exercise and demonstrating its war capability, and selectively saying, "Don't mess with me, I have the fire power", its possible, the USA now discounts the IRANIANS for all their empty threats.

Last year IRAN warned "No ships shall pass my seas" and a US SHIP turned back and headed further away, with that, IRAN said "IF YOU COME THIS WAY AGAIN!, I SHALL TAKE CARE OF U!.  A week later, when the SHIP returned, IRAN did nothing.

A whole lot of empty promises and lack of management displinary skills of IRANs arm forces, indeed raises many doubts, but then again, they have shown more than once, their inefficiencies, an example how they were not able to handle the naughty behavior of STUXNET or when their mililary depots blew up, due to "improperly of storage weapons" techniques.

A whole lot of questions are always raised, when it comes to IRAN, the sabre rattling has started to become boring, this could be the underestimation both parties could make, leading up to the escalation in world war three.

The USA may just push it further and strangle the IRANIAN even more, before the IRANIANS make the first move, due to fear attack.

indeed escalate world war 3, and the IRANIANS will indeed give them a tough fight, which will solve USA's economic problems and the Industrial War Complex will once again have their way.

 

25Jun/12Off

Moody’s does it again. Affirms India, Downgrades World

Truly an India Shining update, Moody Affirms India outlook as stable, downgrades world, bank stocks rallied last week, and market participants said rating agencies were irrelevant in the face of global chaos that is underway, does this signal a short on a positive or stable rating, and a long on a downgrade?

NEW DELHI--Moody's Investors Service said Monday it is maintaining its "stable" outlook on India's sovereign rating as the growth slowdown and deteriorating business sentiment in the economy are likely to be temporary. The decision would give the Indian government the much-needed respite as it faces heat due to a cut in outlook to "negative" from "stable" by Standard & Poor's in April and by Fitch last week, reflecting fading investor confidence triggered by worsening conditions in the economy.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-affirms-indias-outlook-at-stable-2012-06-25

Moody's downgrade gives edge to safe-haven banks
Major ratings downgrades by Moody's will further divide the world's biggest banks based on their strength and access to cheap customer deposits. The ratings, released Thursday by Moody's Investors Service, gave a competitive advantage to "safe-haven" banks that fund themselves with stable, low-cost customer deposits, while worsening the outlook for weaker banks that rely more on capital markets for their funding.
http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20120625-355113.html

25Jun/12Off

Bearish forces at work!. Nifty 4500 on the cards?

Last year in Jan, near about 6300 on the Nifty, We advised a short, prior to doing so, our team visited Mumbai, saw the construction all over, saw the folly of the richest man in India with his tall billion dollar building as his home, and witnessed the hope in the AIR, "India Shining". All this presented a peak for the markets.

Efficiency in India is non present and as the euphoria of cheap money nears its end, Indians slowly realize the days of cheap money is over. In Economics its hard to see, how growth can be delivered by cheaper code writers that India Offers, or how this country could sustain itself on a global scale, from self sufficiency the country today is a net importer, its deficits are evidence on the Indian Rupee.

So after this trip on the day out, at the airport departure terminal, we headed to the smoking room of the airport. In Airports smoking room's, usually tips can be obtained on how the country looks in the eyes of departing travelers and more often than not, it's a worthy observation. A gentleman travelling back to the middle east asked us what we did. And we highlighted we made a quick study of the situation on the ground and believe that the up move of India is over, {we were short, a good size at 6000 areas}!.

This gentleman quickly became agitated and highlighted how the whole world was in Shit, including the middle east and how India will rise up to become a super power in the years ahead. We held back and gave him a grin and walked away. If it acts like a duck, quacks like a duck, then it is a duck.

Now if indeed we are right, how will it play out!

The debt exposures of the government and corporate's, which is hurting, especially those who borrowed FCCB's and in various foreign instruments will come to roost, devaluing the Indian Rupee even further, technically our charts indicate the region of 62-64 before any meaningful correction on the INR, while on the first phrase of devaluation the noise from government officials and verbal interventions will provide initial level support to the currency, but verbal interventions can only do so much.

Once additional momentum picks up to the downside and political dissents ramp up their voice on inflationary pressures, the stock markets will start to recognize and high frequency bots will be unable to continue providing the fake liquidity that is currently present, propping up markets is a strategy and belief shared by greenspan and bernanke, they believe higher stock valuations, provide a feel good factor and eventually reflect the true extend of the economy, this is indeed false.

India's RBI governor is also trying to act like them too, which will make Inflation easily accessible.

Their theory is flawed, it doesnt reflect anything near the true extend of the economy, in reality the economy is suffering, real estate values are held up as in stocks, due to the weaker rupee, which effectively makes the nifty trading at 4000 levels in real value terms, since the INR is almost 20% weaker than before.

Does anyone think, The same level of security and safe keeping as in gold, real estate or any other asset class that holds it value, than fiat currencies and shares will be in for a surprise.

The situation on the ground today is amplified ten times than 1991, as growth levels expanded to the upside, similarly their corrections and problems are also amplified. For those, who want to know better, are advised to take a look at Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore (1997-2002) stock market charts vs Fx devaluations to reach their own conclusions on India.

25Jun/12Off

Nifty M12 – 5193

Nifty June futures are nearing key resistant levels of 5193/5198 region, this level is expected to hold and remain below 5217 region, as outlined on Friday. It's important to notice that market euphoria seems to be catching up and calls are now been made by MAD TV journalists calling for 5800/5900.

A break and close above 5217 (cash) signals to traders to become sidelined. Below here, prices are still good for those looking for leg 3 of the recent down move.

A move below 5168 is now required to signal the easing of hands. Stay tuned as we report.

22Jun/12Off

TRADE-BLOG: Nifty M12, 5137 is Pivotal

REFRESH

5124/5 to hold. And we will see 5101-5097. 5102 seen, 5090 is next in focus. 5104 keeps on struggling, whoever told them, holding on cheaper INRS and markets go up, is fooling them once again. We may dangle here upto 5120 and see what europe has in store for us.

5098-5100 attempts to make it hold. Note its friday, you don't want to go home, with a long. Europe could still implode over the weekend, Monti says a week before disaster. Below 5092, 5090 offers hold and a skip towards 5081.30 and 5076 region...stuck in a range till then.

5124/5 topside exhaust. Testing, and back off now, lets play in between.

Follow the EUROZONE. crisis live here

5131 zoomed up. could be the exhaust. view remain bearish or closing here at best. If the key pivotal level holds, then we are indeed going to attempt 5178 once agian.

Lets give it another 5 minutes to mark its mark. I can'T see a higher unchanged closing on a friday.

If this is leg 2 of the downmove 5340-4840 ?, then the max upside potential should remain at 5178-5195 region and not breach 5217 region, in any case, or else the short trade is questioned. We will see 4840 for a minimum once again in the coming month. This upmove could be attributed from some good talk from the eurozone, which will fade away like the rest.

Markets have yet to retrace back a certain portion from the recent peak highs. Goldman sachs calls for SP 1285, a 5% move downwards, puts a contrarian into thought. Do they have whiff of a QE3 before the rest of us and finding another way, to sucker their clients.

We need to close below 5110 region. a gap up still remains or to be filled on monday. Short agianst 5217 region as a stop. We will see 4840 region as a target, putting risk/reward ratio for a min of 1:3.

INR now at 57.21/22 with highs of 57.33 netdania reports.

Bearish news for world markets, with commodities in a slump.

Gold Poised for Worst Week This Year as Silver Drops to 2012 Low

 

Oil Near Nine-Month Low on Economy; Heads for Weekly Drop

5137 is acting pivotal.

5149, bounce.. a 50 point move can deliver a 50K,100K, 1M INR delta..This upmove could provide some understanding of your option trade. Just understood our size exposures.

Investors cast doubt on "end of world" hedge strategies

5137 held up, 5178 gap now in focus. Nifty Cash needs that to be filled as well. A turn down has to begin somewhere around here, an hour closing is coming up on the horizon.

Bank nifty is recovering similar to European Banks, who are also covering their gaps.  EUROzone is drivng prices, EURO sees 1.2518 earlier.

 

REFRESH

22Jun/12Off

Nifty M12, 5120 gives way.

5120 gives way, now 5110 key. then 5097-5101 in focus, 5124/5 caps.

22Jun/12Off

India Nifty M12 – Last 5128.70 {Short)

Day so far. Opens gap down. Then Range trading 5133-5145, keeping 5149 intack, dangling holding up near 5130 region, While key Pivotal level, remained at 5110 from the (5342-4840 move). Key levels to watch, maximum for this bounce, 5173,5178 and 5217 should cap all attempts, to keep bearish forces alive.

Going short against these levels.

4Jan/12Off

I would love a bounce in Nifty towards…

I would love a bounce in Nifty towards 4825 region, may consider shorting here, after consulting the charts.

Tagged as: Comments Off
2Nov/11Off

Dear Friends SHORT SUMMARY Markets are off a…

Dear Friends,
{SHORT SUMMARY:
Markets are off a few good handles in two days, SP almost 80. {Confirmation of a short term top}
SIGNAL: LARGER BEAR MOVE WILL BE UNDERWAY, ONCE PREVIOUS LOWS OF
OCTOBER 4th 2011 are taken out. {Evidence of a larger move is underway}

If the above scenario plays out, we should see a move of upto -25% from 2011 highs, within
the next few weeks, Mr Market needs a bailout!, Mr Government need a bailout. the race to global currency devaluation looks underway. If we stop printing, we deflate, if we continue printing, we stagflate.

In both scenario's, the eventuality is deflation and depression. The great depression didn't see market highs for the next decades, unemployment soared to 25%, and if scarcity of resources play out, a study of the great china famine, is a must. In short extreme periods of difficulty could be on the HORIZON.
How does one protect his exposure in such a scenario, is the short story of the day.}

Russia Markets got Halted, when this post was emailed out.

k.regards
dtrader

{DISCLAIMER: NOT FEAR MONGERING, this is simply a market rant.}

REDFLAG: Sequence of Events.

1) Rally of the Lows from 2008.
2) No New Highs, since last TOP.
3) Rallied Fueled by Cheap Liquidity, A Million in 2008 and before was a'lot of chips.
4) Jan 2011, First Breakdown occured in Asia, mainly India, China. {China is still 50% or more off its highs from 2007, INDIA will Follow}
5) The Western Markets breakdown started in July. Asia Broke even lower.
6) Europe Sovereign debt, Insurance premiums also soared.
7) Four weeks ago, China Defended its Banks, Insurance polices on Asian Bank Debt, premiums increased.
8) Response was, We will leverage 4-5 times on Money we will yet to raise by EUROPE.
9) Markets Rallied, almost {30% closer to previous HIGHS}, In a MONTH, {20% UPWARDS} in October 2011.
10) Yesterday MF Global Went bust, over Europe Debt, Counter Party RISK, play on. RISK OFF.

--> November has just started and may break October Lows, says so, the monthly charts.

As a technical analyst, I am watching some of my Monthly Charts as they Break Down, these tell me, "it will
take almost 13 months to come back, that's the minimum, which means a single trend grinding
downwards for 13 months", now couple that with the economic conditions we are facing.
It spells disaster.

When I put these together, it reminds me of 2000-2003 periods in Asia, bad times, Sars in Singapore,
Malaysia, India also wasn't doing much better, real estate values were trading almost 70% lower
than their 1994 highs, in these countries.

This was the time to buy real estate in Asia, with or without money, deals were available.

Now what worries me? is Deflation, {IS the liquidity/debt DRIVEN binge of the last 30yrs, coming to
an end?} and what also worries me is Stagflation, a period where, there is zero or very low growth, high unemployment, coupled with High Inflation.

Stagflation may continue to persists, till we are able to figure out, how to bring back growth and make it sustainable, the constant flow of the fiat money pumped into the system, will only bring about stagflation.

Inflation will rear its head, due to scarcity and hoarding of resources in the face of deflating Fiat Money.

If we deflate it would be better, that means less credit, higher interest rates to squeeze the excess
out of the system and we can build up again later in the next 10-15 years.

There are two ways going forward, print more, pump more leveraged liquidity into the system,
and suffer stagflation, the BRICS may suffer from HYPERINFLATION, since they rather keep their US FX RESERVES high / FX low to remain export competitive, they too are also running FISCAL DEFICITS.{The race to global currency devaluation}.

Hence We need a bailout, the power of punch has to be greater than 2008, expansion of balance sheets
have to be far greater than before, to have an impact and in the face of what the FEDERAL RESERVE believes in, They believe, if they don't continue printing and paying off previous coupons, then deflation will step in, and prolong the downturn. The result will be known in time, maybe with a few more revolutions and rewarding bad behavior and calling it moral hazard.

So if we deflate then the trade is stay long CASH! as all asset values will become cheaper.
If Stagflation, borrow at whatever better rates and pay back later in cheaper currency.

But as always all fiat currencies eventually go bust, this is not the first time, even for the dollar.

The Eventually is, we will deflate and we will suffer deflation, the excess printing will simply delay the process, which is that of a fiat system going bust, the fiat economies and their respective countries will suffer deep pain, maybe starting with the EURO, if greece steps out of it, then sooner or later the others will also want too, after all, why give in to one central government, the power to print your fiat stored token of value, after all this is the only tool known to the central bank governors, pump and dump. SEE-->: The Vatican wants it some other way.

We need growth, we need to find a way to provide good decent jobs to people, so that society
can progress to the next level of evolution. Unfortunately, the only way found by each country is
to plunder the natural resources of the land and transfer them into so called GDP. It will run out,
one day. We need to find innovative ways to bring back growth.

{Everyone's house already has gone through the process of RADIO, Black and White TV, Color TV,
Washing Machine, Microwave, etc}, we need to find out, whats the next stage in this process, what
has to come next?, which takes out one of these prior processes and brings about the next better enhanced
product or service. There is the formula, if only it was so easy to find one as i RANT.. 🙂

In any case, be careful, stay in cash, gold target is near 1200-1300, Euro 1.25, DOW below 10K,
SP below 1000, INDIA below 4500 in the next two months and for the eventual lows could
be as far as 70% from the previous highs, just like the NASDAQ top at 5000, to a low of 1000+,
or KLCI as low into the 300's, the bear bites deep.

It will be deep for the countries who are running huge budget deficits. Hence safety found in the
markets are in some currencies who have budget surpluses, case in point, the CHF and YEN. These guys
are in the sweet spot, they can devalue yet the markets want to remain there, where else can the excess
liquidity go, I think, its back to THIN AIR, its after all where it call came from.

The dollar may remain BID during this interim. Its up to Helicopter BEN who is having a meeting
the next two days. If he heads to his HELIPAD, we have to head towards the precious metals
physical trade and stack them up. Cash will get cheaper by the minute. Farm Land is the safe bet
in a Hyper-Inflation Scenario. We don't have to care how much food costs, if we can have some
grown in our own land.

Besides the market, the last few months have been giving me sleepless nights, two nights ago,
I almost gave up my shorts, when reviewing the whole europe story over the weekend, staying short in
this environment is just a protective measure, if they print, markets should double again, and in any
case, we are long LIFE, so a hedge strategy is simply a protective measure to survive the crash.

Belated Halloween Greetings.

dtrader
INFLATE OR DEFLATE?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation