Daniel Mankani "DynamicTrader – Trend Trading Dynamics" Trading for a living, systematically profiting from longer term trends.

17Jan/180

We Are Entering Interesting Times, “Key Reversal Major” ESH2783.85

This gonna be very very interesting, "Key Reversal Major" , HIGH PROBABILITY!.
"Trading For a Living" - Daniel Mankani.

Markets participants tend to overdo,
everything that they intend to do,
if it works, rinse, repeat.

If it doesn't work, lessen the bad ones, keep the good one.
Look at overall system performance not of individual trades. Diversification.

All that is fine. But money is such that it always needs a home to survive.
And what happen's when that home doesn't exist.

Every "Fiat" whose price is reflective of the underlying,
a chase for the underlying begins. This is called a "Melt-Up"

Which is now been suggested by the markets, could be over.
Then comes the turn and we break good lower lows.

Example is; BITCOIN. Analysis of its recent trading anatomy,
how melt up, highest high and it will turn around and take out the lowest lows.

In the Stock Market now, the same underlying pattern is now taking place.

Key Reversal Major..
HIGH PROBABILITY.

Co-relation Analysis.

The federal reserve and its associated crony banks have locked themselves in, now the baby is been given to the public.

The stupid and foolhardy investor that always emerges on greed, has now stepped in.

As markets plunge, that fiat has to go somewhere, what does that do to yields?

This coming weekend cot report could show gold squeeze.

Etf squeezes first for delivery and then to liquidate them.

psst here is the secret. “The market is ahead of the curve, what drives it. Sentiment, not economy. Economy on the other hand is reflective of the stock market which is in turn, ahead of the curve.

Its price vs change my friends, a game a cycles of price and time.

Get it?

And as the peak is left behind, feds will still have to hike, to spill more blood. So the foolhardy investor can get his fill.

He is a tough negotiator! He is Trump. He is a republican who are known to start big wars in the first term. He will want to try negotiating debt, bankruptcy king is what he is!

What you see is drip drip drip, once its wet enough, then it slips.

"If the analogy is true, then you can assume the result is other debts holders forgive US debts.  Which means long USD before it starts flying. Buy Moar!"

Response:

You are assuming that dollar becomes scarce as they liquidate treasures holdings and yields rise on them. Yes, in such an instance dollar will become scarce and fly, but in that scarcity lies in there its own collapse. Then do you think its will rise in price?

The response for that lies in, understanding whether the countries monetary supply is expanding or shrinking. Is there a trend towards self isolation vs opening up trade, monetary supply expands with more positive spread across borders.

That's your answer. Lies in the underlying.

By 2018 end, dollar will be down another 10% and its global dominance shrinks,
the challenges will be in china. Its becoming japan. USA will see its 1998.

17/Jan/2018 - Dynamictrader.com

 

22Oct/08Off

FEAR GRIPS THE WORLD

These are the end days, the world is almost over and this may spell the end of the financial markets, mainly the stock markets for the world, investors who have lost money will not return ever! It’s a hopeless scenario! I am getting out!.

Scanning through various web forums, media channels and even the classifieds sections for real estate in traditional media are yelling, help me out here!, take my position!, I am losing money and I want you to lose some too.! But Caveat emptor! (Buyer beware)

Hello there! Hold on just yet. Haven’t we seen this move before!

In our book ”Technopreneurship – The Successful Entrepreneur in the New Economy”, Pearson Ed ISBN 0-13-046545-3, we had labeled, the first three chapters, The Greed, The (False) Hope and The Fear. The fourth chapter is called, The Opportunity, the start of a new dawn.

Fearful times just as this are actually the greatest opportunity for investors and it’s often referred to the changing of the guards. This collapse that we are currently witnessing had to happen and it has to be vengeful enough to liquidate the one’s on the Edge and trust me there are many; prices have to fall back to equilibrium to make it attractive enough for the new guards to venture in. These cycles are the greatest innovation of a market driven economy.

The book entails the three chapters and correctly labeled the cycles. The greed phrase was important and it just didn’t happen in Asia but the world over. To prove a point, here are the stats of the world’s tallest buildings and how they coincided with recessions there after.

Tallest Buildings of the world

Tallest Buildings of the world

This chart depicts of the tallest buildings in the world and has often coincided with major economic collapses and recessions. Its interesting to note;

1931 – Empire state building (The Great Depression)
1972-1973 World trade centre 1974 Sears Tower. (The 70’s Oil crisis)
1998-1999, Malaysia’s Twins/Shanghai’s JM Tower. (Asian Financial Crisis)
2003-2004 – HK – Two International Financial Centre / Taipei 101 (SARS)
2007-2008-2009- Under Construction. Shanghai WFC, Burj Dubai and Freedom Tower NY City.

All appeared in a timely fashion, where planning began just before the start of the crisis and completion occurring when the crisis is midway or near completion. For example the tallest building in Hong Kong, coincided with Hong Kong suffering the most during the ASIAN SARS crisis. Another interesting note, many mega projects planned in tandem with the greatest buildings of the world, hardly reach completion and if they ever do, they remain empty shells for years to come.

Mega Projects planned and under constructions.

Singapore has two major casinos under construction at the moment, there are reports of Las Vegas Sands in trouble at the moment and they being one of the bidders for the casino in Singapore.Dubai has the world palm islands under development and Burg Dubai, the Tallest Building in the world.

The correlation between these two markets is as follows. Both have no natural resources and are very much service oriented economies. Speculation was rife in both of these markets with highly leveraged transactions, Buyers requirements were simply, as low as 1-2% option money for a transaction and if delivery is taken, 10% and no money down till completion. Banks were lax in lending despite the values of underlying asset had already appreciated 300-500% from the last crisis (Singapore 2003 SARS / Dubai 2003 Iraq War). Both were eyeing to become the New Mecca of the world, with Dubai being at the epic-center of the oil kingdom and Singapore with its rhetoric of first world, cleanest, safest place in the world to do business, aptly called the Switzerland of Asia.

Just as the axe fell on rating agencies for not being prudent in the stock market, Banks are probably looking towards their respective property valuators in this scenario. There is still (false) hope prevalent in these markets and all that is required is, the local economy/stock market remains sideways for another two quarters and we shall see various sales liquidations coming to market.

While the stock market may see snap-back rallies from depressed levels, again its not a long term play as what most media channels predict, the excesses of the economy have to cleaned up for good, before chapter 4 unfolds.

Disclosure

  1. Our real estate fund has no position in any of these countries except in KLCC, Malaysia, we are long prime downtown properties with 100% tenancy.
  2. Our emerging markets equities fund, is long short term call options in India.