Daniel Mankani "DynamicTrader – Trend Trading Dynamics" Trading for a living, systematically profiting from longer term trends.

25Jun/12Off

Bearish forces at work!. Nifty 4500 on the cards?

Last year in Jan, near about 6300 on the Nifty, We advised a short, prior to doing so, our team visited Mumbai, saw the construction all over, saw the folly of the richest man in India with his tall billion dollar building as his home, and witnessed the hope in the AIR, "India Shining". All this presented a peak for the markets.

Efficiency in India is non present and as the euphoria of cheap money nears its end, Indians slowly realize the days of cheap money is over. In Economics its hard to see, how growth can be delivered by cheaper code writers that India Offers, or how this country could sustain itself on a global scale, from self sufficiency the country today is a net importer, its deficits are evidence on the Indian Rupee.

So after this trip on the day out, at the airport departure terminal, we headed to the smoking room of the airport. In Airports smoking room's, usually tips can be obtained on how the country looks in the eyes of departing travelers and more often than not, it's a worthy observation. A gentleman travelling back to the middle east asked us what we did. And we highlighted we made a quick study of the situation on the ground and believe that the up move of India is over, {we were short, a good size at 6000 areas}!.

This gentleman quickly became agitated and highlighted how the whole world was in Shit, including the middle east and how India will rise up to become a super power in the years ahead. We held back and gave him a grin and walked away. If it acts like a duck, quacks like a duck, then it is a duck.

Now if indeed we are right, how will it play out!

The debt exposures of the government and corporate's, which is hurting, especially those who borrowed FCCB's and in various foreign instruments will come to roost, devaluing the Indian Rupee even further, technically our charts indicate the region of 62-64 before any meaningful correction on the INR, while on the first phrase of devaluation the noise from government officials and verbal interventions will provide initial level support to the currency, but verbal interventions can only do so much.

Once additional momentum picks up to the downside and political dissents ramp up their voice on inflationary pressures, the stock markets will start to recognize and high frequency bots will be unable to continue providing the fake liquidity that is currently present, propping up markets is a strategy and belief shared by greenspan and bernanke, they believe higher stock valuations, provide a feel good factor and eventually reflect the true extend of the economy, this is indeed false.

India's RBI governor is also trying to act like them too, which will make Inflation easily accessible.

Their theory is flawed, it doesnt reflect anything near the true extend of the economy, in reality the economy is suffering, real estate values are held up as in stocks, due to the weaker rupee, which effectively makes the nifty trading at 4000 levels in real value terms, since the INR is almost 20% weaker than before.

Does anyone think, The same level of security and safe keeping as in gold, real estate or any other asset class that holds it value, than fiat currencies and shares will be in for a surprise.

The situation on the ground today is amplified ten times than 1991, as growth levels expanded to the upside, similarly their corrections and problems are also amplified. For those, who want to know better, are advised to take a look at Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore (1997-2002) stock market charts vs Fx devaluations to reach their own conclusions on India.

25Jun/12Off

Nifty M12 – 5193

Nifty June futures are nearing key resistant levels of 5193/5198 region, this level is expected to hold and remain below 5217 region, as outlined on Friday. It's important to notice that market euphoria seems to be catching up and calls are now been made by MAD TV journalists calling for 5800/5900.

A break and close above 5217 (cash) signals to traders to become sidelined. Below here, prices are still good for those looking for leg 3 of the recent down move.

A move below 5168 is now required to signal the easing of hands. Stay tuned as we report.

22Jun/12Off

TRADE-BLOG: Nifty M12, 5137 is Pivotal

REFRESH

5124/5 to hold. And we will see 5101-5097. 5102 seen, 5090 is next in focus. 5104 keeps on struggling, whoever told them, holding on cheaper INRS and markets go up, is fooling them once again. We may dangle here upto 5120 and see what europe has in store for us.

5098-5100 attempts to make it hold. Note its friday, you don't want to go home, with a long. Europe could still implode over the weekend, Monti says a week before disaster. Below 5092, 5090 offers hold and a skip towards 5081.30 and 5076 region...stuck in a range till then.

5124/5 topside exhaust. Testing, and back off now, lets play in between.

Follow the EUROZONE. crisis live here

5131 zoomed up. could be the exhaust. view remain bearish or closing here at best. If the key pivotal level holds, then we are indeed going to attempt 5178 once agian.

Lets give it another 5 minutes to mark its mark. I can'T see a higher unchanged closing on a friday.

If this is leg 2 of the downmove 5340-4840 ?, then the max upside potential should remain at 5178-5195 region and not breach 5217 region, in any case, or else the short trade is questioned. We will see 4840 for a minimum once again in the coming month. This upmove could be attributed from some good talk from the eurozone, which will fade away like the rest.

Markets have yet to retrace back a certain portion from the recent peak highs. Goldman sachs calls for SP 1285, a 5% move downwards, puts a contrarian into thought. Do they have whiff of a QE3 before the rest of us and finding another way, to sucker their clients.

We need to close below 5110 region. a gap up still remains or to be filled on monday. Short agianst 5217 region as a stop. We will see 4840 region as a target, putting risk/reward ratio for a min of 1:3.

INR now at 57.21/22 with highs of 57.33 netdania reports.

Bearish news for world markets, with commodities in a slump.

Gold Poised for Worst Week This Year as Silver Drops to 2012 Low

 

Oil Near Nine-Month Low on Economy; Heads for Weekly Drop

5137 is acting pivotal.

5149, bounce.. a 50 point move can deliver a 50K,100K, 1M INR delta..This upmove could provide some understanding of your option trade. Just understood our size exposures.

Investors cast doubt on "end of world" hedge strategies

5137 held up, 5178 gap now in focus. Nifty Cash needs that to be filled as well. A turn down has to begin somewhere around here, an hour closing is coming up on the horizon.

Bank nifty is recovering similar to European Banks, who are also covering their gaps.  EUROzone is drivng prices, EURO sees 1.2518 earlier.

 

REFRESH

14Jun/12Off

Critical weekend

Pls have no positions into this weekend onwards. Place your bets weekly, the ride into the close of 2012, will start to get more tricky.

Filed under: Trading Comments Off
14Jun/12Off

The gambling investor and the poor man

The life of investments is a gamble. Win or lose, but when the odds that are stacked up, you cannot go wrong, just keep on printing your dreams, but for the common man, hard work and honesty gets him no where.

Filed under: Trading Comments Off
19Mar/12Off

The Loonie has broken to the downside and Yen is capped around 83.45.

The Loonie has broken to the downside and The dollar  is capped against the Yen at around 83.45, And whereas it looks like the bounce levels for CHF at 0.91 figure and EUR at 1.3245 appears near conclusion. Am not sure, if these breaks and  if it does, there is more upside for the currencies and more downside for the dollar, against the CHF and the EURO. {Targets CHF 89.60 / EURO 1.3455 levels}

This break above 1.3245/0.9100 {below} is required to provide confirmation that the US stock market rally is extending, and targets Dow 14000/1450 SP. In such a scenario, the currencies also extend and the recent weakness in the JPY can see it take out 83.50.

About 83.50 on the  JPY puts 85.50 into target, a key resistant level, whose break is required to provide evidence that the move for the USD towards 92-94 YEN is indeed underway. The JPY is the only trend at the moment that looks extremely healthy and with the most potential,  The bottom right, as expected, now for the larger big move, we have been waiting for will present itself in the coming weeks.

Only, If the bounce concludes, for the EURO and CHF and there is a reversal, JPY trend trade could be in danger as we shall see a lower stock market and cash moving back into safe havens, which the YEN has lately demonstrated a few times, as it inverse relationships to US stocks takes hold.

In the longer term, been parked in the dollar will look better than stocks, which are now over extended and there has been some substantial damage done for the bears, none are to be seen, the VIX has been crying out aloud.

Stocks may be poised to go crazy to the upside and it could be relatively fast and furious, with 14000 within weeks, and the SP 1450 in sight. Good levels to position to jump in on the turn around.

Never forget the short squeeze of the late nineties, The Nasdag went from 1000 to 5000 in a relative short period of time. Yes!, the Nasdaq gained close to 500% in a relative short period of time. 15 months {Oct 1998 to March 2000 bust). We could see a repeat here.

The stock bulls are pushing it once more again, very soon some juicy steaks will be on the table.