Daniel Mankani "DynamicTrader – Trend Trading Dynamics" Trading for a living, systematically profiting from longer term trends.

17Jan/180

We Are Entering Interesting Times, “Key Reversal Major” ESH2783.85

This gonna be very very interesting, "Key Reversal Major" , HIGH PROBABILITY!.
"Trading For a Living" - Daniel Mankani.

Markets participants tend to overdo,
everything that they intend to do,
if it works, rinse, repeat.

If it doesn't work, lessen the bad ones, keep the good one.
Look at overall system performance not of individual trades. Diversification.

All that is fine. But money is such that it always needs a home to survive.
And what happen's when that home doesn't exist.

Every "Fiat" whose price is reflective of the underlying,
a chase for the underlying begins. This is called a "Melt-Up"

Which is now been suggested by the markets, could be over.
Then comes the turn and we break good lower lows.

Example is; BITCOIN. Analysis of its recent trading anatomy,
how melt up, highest high and it will turn around and take out the lowest lows.

In the Stock Market now, the same underlying pattern is now taking place.

Key Reversal Major..
HIGH PROBABILITY.

Co-relation Analysis.

The federal reserve and its associated crony banks have locked themselves in, now the baby is been given to the public.

The stupid and foolhardy investor that always emerges on greed, has now stepped in.

As markets plunge, that fiat has to go somewhere, what does that do to yields?

This coming weekend cot report could show gold squeeze.

Etf squeezes first for delivery and then to liquidate them.

psst here is the secret. “The market is ahead of the curve, what drives it. Sentiment, not economy. Economy on the other hand is reflective of the stock market which is in turn, ahead of the curve.

Its price vs change my friends, a game a cycles of price and time.

Get it?

And as the peak is left behind, feds will still have to hike, to spill more blood. So the foolhardy investor can get his fill.

He is a tough negotiator! He is Trump. He is a republican who are known to start big wars in the first term. He will want to try negotiating debt, bankruptcy king is what he is!

What you see is drip drip drip, once its wet enough, then it slips.

"If the analogy is true, then you can assume the result is other debts holders forgive US debts.  Which means long USD before it starts flying. Buy Moar!"

Response:

You are assuming that dollar becomes scarce as they liquidate treasures holdings and yields rise on them. Yes, in such an instance dollar will become scarce and fly, but in that scarcity lies in there its own collapse. Then do you think its will rise in price?

The response for that lies in, understanding whether the countries monetary supply is expanding or shrinking. Is there a trend towards self isolation vs opening up trade, monetary supply expands with more positive spread across borders.

That's your answer. Lies in the underlying.

By 2018 end, dollar will be down another 10% and its global dominance shrinks,
the challenges will be in china. Its becoming japan. USA will see its 1998.

17/Jan/2018 - Dynamictrader.com

 

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