Daniel Mankani "DynamicTrader – Trend Trading Dynamics" Trading for a living, systematically profiting from longer term trends.

25Jun/12Off

Moody’s does it again. Affirms India, Downgrades World

Truly an India Shining update, Moody Affirms India outlook as stable, downgrades world, bank stocks rallied last week, and market participants said rating agencies were irrelevant in the face of global chaos that is underway, does this signal a short on a positive or stable rating, and a long on a downgrade?

NEW DELHI--Moody's Investors Service said Monday it is maintaining its "stable" outlook on India's sovereign rating as the growth slowdown and deteriorating business sentiment in the economy are likely to be temporary. The decision would give the Indian government the much-needed respite as it faces heat due to a cut in outlook to "negative" from "stable" by Standard & Poor's in April and by Fitch last week, reflecting fading investor confidence triggered by worsening conditions in the economy.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-affirms-indias-outlook-at-stable-2012-06-25

Moody's downgrade gives edge to safe-haven banks
Major ratings downgrades by Moody's will further divide the world's biggest banks based on their strength and access to cheap customer deposits. The ratings, released Thursday by Moody's Investors Service, gave a competitive advantage to "safe-haven" banks that fund themselves with stable, low-cost customer deposits, while worsening the outlook for weaker banks that rely more on capital markets for their funding.
http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20120625-355113.html

25Jun/12Off

Bearish forces at work!. Nifty 4500 on the cards?

Last year in Jan, near about 6300 on the Nifty, We advised a short, prior to doing so, our team visited Mumbai, saw the construction all over, saw the folly of the richest man in India with his tall billion dollar building as his home, and witnessed the hope in the AIR, "India Shining". All this presented a peak for the markets.

Efficiency in India is non present and as the euphoria of cheap money nears its end, Indians slowly realize the days of cheap money is over. In Economics its hard to see, how growth can be delivered by cheaper code writers that India Offers, or how this country could sustain itself on a global scale, from self sufficiency the country today is a net importer, its deficits are evidence on the Indian Rupee.

So after this trip on the day out, at the airport departure terminal, we headed to the smoking room of the airport. In Airports smoking room's, usually tips can be obtained on how the country looks in the eyes of departing travelers and more often than not, it's a worthy observation. A gentleman travelling back to the middle east asked us what we did. And we highlighted we made a quick study of the situation on the ground and believe that the up move of India is over, {we were short, a good size at 6000 areas}!.

This gentleman quickly became agitated and highlighted how the whole world was in Shit, including the middle east and how India will rise up to become a super power in the years ahead. We held back and gave him a grin and walked away. If it acts like a duck, quacks like a duck, then it is a duck.

Now if indeed we are right, how will it play out!

The debt exposures of the government and corporate's, which is hurting, especially those who borrowed FCCB's and in various foreign instruments will come to roost, devaluing the Indian Rupee even further, technically our charts indicate the region of 62-64 before any meaningful correction on the INR, while on the first phrase of devaluation the noise from government officials and verbal interventions will provide initial level support to the currency, but verbal interventions can only do so much.

Once additional momentum picks up to the downside and political dissents ramp up their voice on inflationary pressures, the stock markets will start to recognize and high frequency bots will be unable to continue providing the fake liquidity that is currently present, propping up markets is a strategy and belief shared by greenspan and bernanke, they believe higher stock valuations, provide a feel good factor and eventually reflect the true extend of the economy, this is indeed false.

India's RBI governor is also trying to act like them too, which will make Inflation easily accessible.

Their theory is flawed, it doesnt reflect anything near the true extend of the economy, in reality the economy is suffering, real estate values are held up as in stocks, due to the weaker rupee, which effectively makes the nifty trading at 4000 levels in real value terms, since the INR is almost 20% weaker than before.

Does anyone think, The same level of security and safe keeping as in gold, real estate or any other asset class that holds it value, than fiat currencies and shares will be in for a surprise.

The situation on the ground today is amplified ten times than 1991, as growth levels expanded to the upside, similarly their corrections and problems are also amplified. For those, who want to know better, are advised to take a look at Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore (1997-2002) stock market charts vs Fx devaluations to reach their own conclusions on India.

25Jun/12Off

Egypt New President

Egypt New President. As predicated in the old scriptures, is playing out? Is it?

Filed under: Revolution Comments Off
25Jun/12Off

Nifty M12 – 5193

Nifty June futures are nearing key resistant levels of 5193/5198 region, this level is expected to hold and remain below 5217 region, as outlined on Friday. It's important to notice that market euphoria seems to be catching up and calls are now been made by MAD TV journalists calling for 5800/5900.

A break and close above 5217 (cash) signals to traders to become sidelined. Below here, prices are still good for those looking for leg 3 of the recent down move.

A move below 5168 is now required to signal the easing of hands. Stay tuned as we report.

22Jun/12Off

Investors cast doubt on “end of world” hedge strategies

Investors cast doubt on "end of world" hedge strategies

An office worker talks on his phone as he looks the stock board at the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) building in central Sydney June 15, 2012. REUTERS/Daniel Munoz

LONDON | Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:24am EDT

(Reuters) - Hedge fund investors have voiced their concerns about complex funds designed to protect against major market meltdowns, just as fears of a break-up of the euro-zone have spurred huge interest in these products.

So-called "tail risk" funds, also known as "black swan" strategies after the popular book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, are supposed to hedge against rare but dangerous events, such as the market sell-off following Lehman Brothers' demise.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/22/uk-hedgefunds-gaim-tail-idUSLNE85L00920120622

Filed under: Socionomics Comments Off
22Jun/12Off

Gold Poised for Worst Week This Year as Silver Drops to 2012 Low

Gold was set for its worst week this year after the U.S. Federal Reserve didn’t resume a debt purchase program even as the economy showed signs of slowing. Silver fell to the cheapest since December and platinum declined to a two-week low.

Spot gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,562.88 an ounce at 2:03 p.m. in Singapore and is down 4 percent this week, the most since the five days to Dec. 16. Bullion dropped 2.6 percent yesterday, the most since Feb. 29, tumbling with other commodities as the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials slumped 22 percent from this year’s closing high, entering a bear market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-22/gold-poised-for-worst-week-this-year-as-silver-drops-to-2012-low.html

Filed under: Commodities Comments Off
22Jun/12Off

Oil Near Nine-Month Low on Economy; Heads for Weekly Drop

Oil Near Nine-Month Low on Economy; Heads for Weekly Drop

Oil fell for a third day to the lowest level in almost nine months and headed for a second weekly decline amid signs of a global economic slowdown that may curb fuel demand.

Futures slid as much as 0.8 percent after decreasing 4 percent yesterday, the biggest drop this year. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s economic index signaled the biggest contraction in manufacturing in almost a year, adding to data that showed factory output shrinking in Europe and China. Prices rebounded as much as 1 percent earlier after a storm started to form in the Gulf of Mexicoand prices approached a technical support level.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-21/oil-trades-near-nine-month-low-amid-signs-growth-slowing-.html

Filed under: Commodities Comments Off
22Jun/12Off

INR now at 57.21/22 with highs of 57.33 netdania reports

INR now at 57.21/22 with highs of 57.33 netdania reports

Tagged as: Comments Off
22Jun/12Off

Stocks Drop as Commodities Enter Bear Market on Economy

U.S. stocks tumbled, driving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the second-biggest loss of the year, and commodities entered a bear market while Treasuries and the dollar rallied as reports on global manufacturing fueled concern the economy is slowing.

The S&P 500 sank 2.2 percent. The S&P GSCI commodities gauge slid to the lowest level since 2010 and is down 22 percent from a February peak. Oil fell below $80 a barrel for the first time in eight months. Ten-year Treasury yields lost four basis points to 1.62 percent. The dollar gained versus all major peers. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3 percent at 6:21 p.m. New York time after bank credit downgrades announced by Moody’s Investors Service matched expectations.

More:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-21/asian-stocks-gain-after-fed-extends-stimulus-as-oil-euro-drop.html?cmpid=yhoo

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22Jun/12Off

TRADE-BLOG: Nifty M12, 5137 is Pivotal

REFRESH

5124/5 to hold. And we will see 5101-5097. 5102 seen, 5090 is next in focus. 5104 keeps on struggling, whoever told them, holding on cheaper INRS and markets go up, is fooling them once again. We may dangle here upto 5120 and see what europe has in store for us.

5098-5100 attempts to make it hold. Note its friday, you don't want to go home, with a long. Europe could still implode over the weekend, Monti says a week before disaster. Below 5092, 5090 offers hold and a skip towards 5081.30 and 5076 region...stuck in a range till then.

5124/5 topside exhaust. Testing, and back off now, lets play in between.

Follow the EUROZONE. crisis live here

5131 zoomed up. could be the exhaust. view remain bearish or closing here at best. If the key pivotal level holds, then we are indeed going to attempt 5178 once agian.

Lets give it another 5 minutes to mark its mark. I can'T see a higher unchanged closing on a friday.

If this is leg 2 of the downmove 5340-4840 ?, then the max upside potential should remain at 5178-5195 region and not breach 5217 region, in any case, or else the short trade is questioned. We will see 4840 for a minimum once again in the coming month. This upmove could be attributed from some good talk from the eurozone, which will fade away like the rest.

Markets have yet to retrace back a certain portion from the recent peak highs. Goldman sachs calls for SP 1285, a 5% move downwards, puts a contrarian into thought. Do they have whiff of a QE3 before the rest of us and finding another way, to sucker their clients.

We need to close below 5110 region. a gap up still remains or to be filled on monday. Short agianst 5217 region as a stop. We will see 4840 region as a target, putting risk/reward ratio for a min of 1:3.

INR now at 57.21/22 with highs of 57.33 netdania reports.

Bearish news for world markets, with commodities in a slump.

Gold Poised for Worst Week This Year as Silver Drops to 2012 Low

 

Oil Near Nine-Month Low on Economy; Heads for Weekly Drop

5137 is acting pivotal.

5149, bounce.. a 50 point move can deliver a 50K,100K, 1M INR delta..This upmove could provide some understanding of your option trade. Just understood our size exposures.

Investors cast doubt on "end of world" hedge strategies

5137 held up, 5178 gap now in focus. Nifty Cash needs that to be filled as well. A turn down has to begin somewhere around here, an hour closing is coming up on the horizon.

Bank nifty is recovering similar to European Banks, who are also covering their gaps.  EUROzone is drivng prices, EURO sees 1.2518 earlier.

 

REFRESH