Daniel Mankani "DynamicTrader – Trend Trading Dynamics" Trading for a living, systematically profiting from longer term trends.

About

About: The Markets are infected with corruption.

Since 1997/-

What this site is all about?
Financial markets rants, boom and bust cycles and trend analysis.  Over two decades of speculative bear investing.

Why?
Technical trading and analysis has grown past the human mind, high frequency trading and excessive moves are the norms. Best times to trade, are when volatility is up, good times for trends, is when volatility is low.

Time and time again, hedge funds and funds with large trades would simply send out a smoke signal informing other traders of a fire brewing at some place and when all the traders followed the smoke to the fireplace they would often discover that the smoke was a cloud forming in the skies and indicated that it was going to rain and definitely there is no fire here and if there was any fire, the rain will surely extinguish it.

”Long Positions need high prices to get out and shorts need low positions to get out. Whoever accumulates a position never announces that he is doing so and whoever wants to get out, never announces that he is selling, but the opposite smoke is sent out.”

Here are a few examples.
A) Feb 1998, Monthly Chart, Silver shows a huge spike upto $7.90. Just few months before in Oct 1997 it traded at an average price of $4.0-4.70. The spike was created by Mr Warren Buffet announcing that he held 20% of the worlds silver and he was buying more. We cautioned our clients about this news, while many were suckered, we short that rally as Mr Buffet did.

B) Dec-1997-Oct 1998. Global banks announced the “Dawn of the New ERA”, an alternative currency to the US dollar is born; the launch of the EURO currency and the phasing out of the deutschemarks from the FX markets. All media channels in a concerted effort asked everyone to buy the EURO. Prior to the event, EURUSD trades at 1.05-1.22 (while 1.22 is the spike high, Oct 1998). What happened thereafter? The Euro visits 0.8229 and stays in this range for 2.5yrs.

There are various examples telling us time and time again not to believe what is being sent out and it would be accurate to say that taking a timely short on such news is the right way to trade. You can see the same patterns occurring even today: Oil collapsed from $147 to where it is today on the news from Morgan Stanley calling Oil at $200 per barrel or the same pattern is in Gold where a snake oil salesman asked investors to dump cash for Gold, calling it the only true value currency in the world.

How did we track all this data?! Back then as computers became cheaper, it was possible for any trader to obtain the latest in Financial Analysis technology software, so instead of charting manually, traders could now rely on the latest technology, albeit at a higher cost than today. System Writer, Super Charts, Tradestation 4.0 were platforms of those days and while we still use them, there are many more advanced versions available out there today.

These platforms allowed us to back-test ideas, strategies on historical data as well as allowed us to scan historical databases to find repeater patterns again and again. Trade Signals was born, so now we had a system telling us when to buy and sell and at what levels, entries and exits. Knowing the total results of the system and its reports historically, we were able to determine the total losses that this system could result in and the draw downs became the level of capital required to initiate a trade based on this system.

So we put all that info online. In 1997, DynamicTrader.Com was born. The services offered were systematic trade signals generated via computerized mechanical trading systems with complete system reports archived and stored in real time. This was done so as to keep track of how wrong/right our signals are/were. By keeping a database, we were not afraid to letting everyone know our status or if we are/were wrong in a trade, and as every trader will tell you, “You have to start loving losses, as when you love them and embrace them they can never get out of hand.”

And since it was real time, there was no after-the-fact-reporting of signals and since they were archived, its value was priceless - it was now a reference for our views in the past and how/right wrong we are/were.

DynamicTrader.com also provided a view on the “noise from the floors”. While the noise from the floor today has been replaced by media channels, they do however offer an insight of what is coming next? And this is what we simply want to be contrarian about.

In the year 2003, DynamicTrader.com closed access to the public and remains as an in-house platform for only our clients and traders. It will be re-launched at a more appropriate time and the team is focused on their own Hedge fund with interests in Emerging Markets Realty and Equities.

Also in 2003, We launched a new book ”Technopreneurship – The Successful Entrepreneur in the New Economy”, Pearson Ed ISBN 0-13-046545-3, which details about risk taking in Technology Ventures and its first three chapters were labeled, The Greed, The (False) Hope and The Fear. At any given stage of the market, we are in one of the phrase.
(( Buy This book / Amazon.com ))

While we have just launched DynamicTrader.Org (Blog Site) we intend to use it as a platform to make sense of current events and provide an alternative view. Our interest is in socionomics, market psychology, current trends, bubbles and cycles, all this keeps the team interested and tuned for major events with each closing day.

Just as the markets close everyday a new lesson is learned and shared. As when time permits.
Welcome and Enjoy the Blogs.
Your feedback is much appreciated.